Inland Empire Progressive

The first major domino has fallen for Congressional Republicans.  This happened in the senate where Senator Joni Ernst will not be seeking reelection in 2026. This is a cause to celebrate here in the Inland Empire because being the bluest state in the Union our California-hating Republican should be scared because they are about to be shown the door whether they like it or not. There is wave building here in the Empire and I think it will culminate with the passage of Prop 50.  With the passage of Prop 50, Obernolte will have to do one of three things. He will either retire, which I don't think it is likely because he has the resources to compete. However, I don't think those resources will be enough to overcome a Democratic backlash.  Second, he can double down on his support for Trump, Elon, and the billionaires. I think this is the most likely scenario. He is already dodging townhalls, is cagy on the release of the Epstein files, and supports the building of concentrat...

  Above is an overview of the precincts that 23rd Congressional District won in 2024. As I said in an earlier post, I believe that Victorville, Adelanto, and parts of Hesperia make up the majority votes that Dems should focus on. However, as you can see above, Dems have won in other areas of the district as well. Redlands, Loma Linda and Barstow as well. You can also see that Dems won in parts of Fort Irwin and Baker.  The most surprising result of my analysis is Joshua Tree. I didn't know it was that Democratic and many precincts were won there.  The overall weakness is turnout. In 2024, the base Democratic cities only were able to turnout 50-55% of voters. That is why I think this race is winnable. With the right coalition we can overcome Obedient Obernolte's stranglehold on the district.  

  The 23rd Congressional District is one of the largest congressional districts in the county totaling over 33,000 square miles. It includes the Mojave Desert which encompasses both the high desert of Hesperia, Adelanto, Victorville and the low deserts of Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms.  Based on analysis of precinct data from the 2024 election, the Democratic Base consists of Adelanto, Victorville, and parts of Hesperia. Candidates would be wise to focus on turnout in these areas to ensure a competitive race. Candidates who live in the High Desert have an advantage because of the geographic distance of candidates who live outside of this area. It is not impossible, but it does represent a challenge. Overall, if Democrats in this district can focus on turning out the base, picking up Dem-Coded independents, and capture some moderate Republicans this district can be won.

Welcome Everyone to my blog. It's been about 10 years since I last published. I admit I let the blog languish a bit. I decided to get back onto the saddle because with President Trump in office it has been a wild ride so far and I don't want to miss it.  Also, I feel this is the best way to be involved. In addition, I have a permanent residence here in the 23rd Congressional District and I feel determined to write about it and its culture. I loved the city of San Bernardino, and I do miss writing about the city, its politics, and the enjoyment of the political battles that were won and lost.  However, it is time to take on the mantle here in Yucaipa and learn about its politics and its culture. Let me tell you it is completely different here than it was in San Bernardino, but San Bernardino has prepared my well for what is to come.   At the moment I am gathering data about the district and will post at least weekly about my findings, observations and interests. T...

Why are Progressives backing a measure that on it's face seems anti-union? If you don't live here in San Bernardino you wouldn't understand. But if you were to stay awhile, you would feel that something is fundamentally wrong. When I first moved here 10 years ago, I didn't pay attention to local politics much but as I did I started to get that feeling of wrongness. The wrongness is that the public safety union (whom up to 80% don't live here) dictated our budget. There was a palpable fear on the council dias to cross them and when anyone did public safety moved swiftly to remove him/her. When we stood up in a bi-partisan fashion in 2011, we dealt a severe blow to that wrongness. However, work to build a San Bernardino for San Bernardino residents continues. Some residents are so consumed by the fear of the "criminal element" that they vote no on this measure. Public Safety at any expense, budget be damned!! This is the wrong mentality to have because ...

Prop 1 - Yes The water bond will be like a mini-stimulus package for local projects, but the price tag ($7B) has me worried about the cost of compromise for future water proposals. Prop 2 - Yes I'm like meh on this measure, we keep passing raining day funds and Sacremento keeps ignoring them. Prop 45 - Yes A single point person to blame for increasing insurance rates is better than the back door shenanigans we have now. Prop 46 - No Doesn't feel fair somehow. Prop 47 - Yes Join Inland Empire Churces in backing this measure. Sending folks to prison for minor offenses only makes them hardened criminals, not reformed citizens. Prop 48 - Yes I don't even know why this is on the ballot. A deal was made with this tribal nation, honor it.

Governor - Jerry Brown* The governor really needs to step up his leadership in the Inland Empire and other inland areas by tackling the issue of poverty headon. Lt. Governor - Gavin Newsom Secretary of State - Alex Padilla Padilla has show some love for the Inland Empire, stopping here twice on the campaign trail. Controller - Betty Yee Yee has also shown some love for the Inland Empire, speaking at the Democratic Luncheon club. She is also a genuine data geek!! However, her endorsement by the San Bernardino Peace Officers Association leaves a question mark in how she will deal with pensions. Treasurer - John Chiang Attorney General - Kamala Harris Insurance Commissioner - Dave Jones Board of Equalization #4 - Nader Shahatit Shahatit is from Highland! Superintendent of Public Instruction - Tom Tomlarkson LOCAL RACES 31st Congressional District - Pete Aguilar Needs to work on connecting with the working class voter, but better than Chabot. 40th Assembly District - Katy Henry Board o...

I have to hand it to the Republicans in this election year here in the Inland Empire. They have launched a concerted effort to stave off their irrelevance, not by switching their stance on issues but by trying to paint themselves as the aribiters of good governance with a homely appearance. Republicans have tried to make some cities more competitive, targeting specifically San Bernardino and Highland but have generated mixed results. In San Bernardino, the advantage is with the Democrats and remains a bastion of working class populism due to its impoverishment and general malaise due to bankruptcy. While Pete Aguilar has struggled here, Paul Chabot's extremism is a turnoff to those rely on government benefits directly to make ends meet. Chabot's talk of cutting taxes and not saying how you will pay for them means giveaways to so called job creators will be paid for on the backs of the poor. No matter how much Chabot harps on his belief that conservative Democrats are the major...

Increasing awareness of the disparities of our judicial system will eventually lead to systemic changes in that process. Officer invovled shootings or OIFs in the judicial parlance are rarely deemed unjustified. In San Bernardino County, there have been no charges brought against officers who were involved in shootings even in the most egregious of circumstances. Being shot 5, 6, or 17 times are instances of overkill that should not be deem justified because law enforcement have semi-lethal methods to defend themselves. However, the District Attorney fails to prosecute because politically he needs the support of law enforcement to get reelected. As the chart above notes, black men are 21 times as likely to get shot by police than whites. 31 folks per 1 million might seem low, but multiplied by the total population of the United States (approximately 300 million) those numbers jump to 9405 black teenage men killed every year by law enforcement. To break this vicious cycle, we have to ...

 Seven years after Congress banned payday-loan companies from charging exorbitant interest rates to service members, many of the nation’s military bases are surrounded by storefront lenders who charge high annual percentage rates, sometimes exceeding 400 percent. The Military Lending Act sought to protect service members and their families from predatory loans. But in practice, the law has defined the types of covered loans so narrowly that it’s been all too easy for lenders to circumvent it. Full Story here and more here.