Inland Empire Progressive

Photo by Karsten Winegeart on Unsplash Rep. Jay Obernolte lack of oversight of  ICE  detention facilities in our district threatens those facilities to become the Auschwitz of Adelanto and Dachau of Desert in California City. The reopening of California City Correctional Facility (CCCF) as an ICE detention center, operated by the private prison company CoreCivic, is a troubling development that demands oversight.  CCCF was once slated for closure as part of Governor Newsom’s broader effort to reduce California’s prison population. But with the federal government ramping up deportations under the Trump administration, the facility has been repurposed to detain immigrants—many of whom have no criminal record and are simply seeking a better life. Representative Obernolte has stated otherwise in a Facebook post when he visited the facility but provided no concrete evidence except to trust his word.   Economic gain should never come at the expense of human dignity. ...

Photo by Lea Kobal on Unsplash Something ugly is happening in our district: we are becoming a two-tier economy. The top earners are roaring ahead with inflated asset values, low mortgages rates, and strong returns on investments — while the bottom is sliding into stagflation! Make no mistake, the conservative economic policies supported by Representative Jay Obernolte and his MAGA republican allies failing the district.  The data paint a stark picture: Wage growth for the bottom third of earners is doing almost nothing, only 0.9% in August 2025. That’s the smallest gain since 2016. The top third saw 3.6% growth in the same period. That’s a huge divergence, and it’s only getting worse.  Spending patterns mirror this gap. The higher earners are spending more; the lower earners are cutting back, squeezed by higher housing costs, inflation, limited wage growth, and tougher job prospects.  These trends aren’t just statistics. They translate into households that can’t make end...

With the recent release of portions of Jeffrey Epstein’s “birthday book” the public deserves a full accounting of what the FBI is hiding and why over terabytes of documents, videos, and recording remain withheld by Jay Obernolte and the Trump administration. Jay Obernolte's reluctance to sign the Discharge Petition by Reps. Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna is a lesson in cowardice. The release of these files is about justice for the victims, the rule of law, and restoring trust in institutions that are meant to protect the vulnerable. However, Rep. Jay Obernolte continues to side with the pedophiles by protecting the powerful. According to the discharge petition direct the Department of Justice to publicly disclose all records pertaining to the investigation of Jeffery Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.  This would include unclassified records referring or relating to Epstein's detention and death; flight logs of aircraft owned or used by  Epstein ,  individuals named in conn...

  I was listening to a Health Advocacy groups webinar and one of the staff said in Washington there is a lot of anti-California sentiment from the Congressional Republicans and the President. This made sense to me because every time I hear Jay Obernolte talk about California and the laws he passes concerning it why does he have glee in his voice. He was a proud sponsor of  HR 89  to block California's emission standards.  He was a proud co-sponsor of  HR 88  to block California's efforts to combat climate change. I thought conservatives were all for state's rights, but I guess that only applies when Republicans are in charge.  In 2026, we have to send a message to the California Republican delegation that either you stand with California, or you stand with President Trump. Defend California and its laws and institutions are find yourself on the outside looking in. 

President Trump has thrown the gauntlet down by scheming with Texas Republicans to pursue mid-decade redistricting.  California has understood the assignment and know that these times are not the time for strongly worded letters but for action. Modern Republicans only understand one thing and that is power. California Democrats are flexing that power to protect the Republic. Now, California Republicans are crying about it. From the piece in  Politico  about California Redistricting efforts:  “It’s a guillotine,” said Dale Quasny, a party delegate and real-estate broker from suburban Los Angeles County. “We won’t be able to pick up the pieces and move forward. I mean, we were making a little headway, but this would be a catastrophe.” Obedient Obernolte has kept his head down, so our district will pick up more territory in Riverside County and we won't be hit too hard with more conservatives entering our district. This means Dems from CA23 have to hustle harder to lear...

The first major domino has fallen for Congressional Republicans.  This happened in the senate where Senator Joni Ernst will not be seeking reelection in 2026. This is a cause to celebrate here in the Inland Empire because being the bluest state in the Union our California-hating Republican should be scared because they are about to be shown the door whether they like it or not. There is wave building here in the Empire and I think it will culminate with the passage of Prop 50.  With the passage of Prop 50, Obernolte will have to do one of three things. He will either retire, which I don't think it is likely because he has the resources to compete. However, I don't think those resources will be enough to overcome a Democratic backlash.  Second, he can double down on his support for Trump, Elon, and the billionaires. I think this is the most likely scenario. He is already dodging townhalls, is cagy on the release of the Epstein files, and supports the building of concentrat...

  Above is an overview of the precincts that 23rd Congressional District won in 2024. As I said in an earlier post, I believe that Victorville, Adelanto, and parts of Hesperia make up the majority votes that Dems should focus on. However, as you can see above, Dems have won in other areas of the district as well. Redlands, Loma Linda and Barstow as well. You can also see that Dems won in parts of Fort Irwin and Baker.  The most surprising result of my analysis is Joshua Tree. I didn't know it was that Democratic and many precincts were won there.  The overall weakness is turnout. In 2024, the base Democratic cities only were able to turnout 50-55% of voters. That is why I think this race is winnable. With the right coalition we can overcome Obedient Obernolte's stranglehold on the district.  

  The 23rd Congressional District is one of the largest congressional districts in the county totaling over 33,000 square miles. It includes the Mojave Desert which encompasses both the high desert of Hesperia, Adelanto, Victorville and the low deserts of Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms.  Based on analysis of precinct data from the 2024 election, the Democratic Base consists of Adelanto, Victorville, and parts of Hesperia. Candidates would be wise to focus on turnout in these areas to ensure a competitive race. Candidates who live in the High Desert have an advantage because of the geographic distance of candidates who live outside of this area. It is not impossible, but it does represent a challenge. Overall, if Democrats in this district can focus on turning out the base, picking up Dem-Coded independents, and capture some moderate Republicans this district can be won.

Welcome Everyone to my blog. It's been about 10 years since I last published. I admit I let the blog languish a bit. I decided to get back onto the saddle because with President Trump in office it has been a wild ride so far and I don't want to miss it.  Also, I feel this is the best way to be involved. In addition, I have a permanent residence here in the 23rd Congressional District and I feel determined to write about it and its culture. I loved the city of San Bernardino, and I do miss writing about the city, its politics, and the enjoyment of the political battles that were won and lost.  However, it is time to take on the mantle here in Yucaipa and learn about its politics and its culture. Let me tell you it is completely different here than it was in San Bernardino, but San Bernardino has prepared my well for what is to come.   At the moment I am gathering data about the district and will post at least weekly about my findings, observations and interests. T...