The first major domino has fallen for Congressional Republicans. This happened in the senate where Senator Joni Ernst will not be seeking reelection in 2026. This is a cause to celebrate here in the Inland Empire because being the bluest state in the Union our California-hating Republican should be scared because they are about to be shown the door whether they like it or not. There is wave building here in the Empire and I think it will culminate with the passage of Prop 50.
With the passage of Prop 50, Obernolte will have to do one of three things. He will either retire, which I don't think it is likely because he has the resources to compete. However, I don't think those resources will be enough to overcome a Democratic backlash.
Second, he can double down on his support for Trump, Elon, and the billionaires. I think this is the most likely scenario. He is already dodging townhalls, is cagy on the release of the Epstein files, and supports the building of concentration camps in the district. I think he will lay low and hope that the blue wave will crash but won't take him out.
Finally, he can come out against Trump. Obedient Obernolte is a slippery politician. He may back the release of the Epstein files and show some courage here and there, possibly on tariffs to show some independence but overall, he will be a lap dog Trump.
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