Inland Empire Progressive

  Above is an overview of the precincts that 23rd Congressional District won in 2024. As I said in an earlier post, I believe that Victorville, Adelanto, and parts of Hesperia make up the majority votes that Dems should focus on. However, as you can see above, Dems have won in other areas of the district as well. Redlands, Loma Linda and Barstow as well. You can also see that Dems won in parts of Fort Irwin and Baker.  The most surprising result of my analysis is Joshua Tree. I didn't know it was that Democratic and many precincts were won there.  The overall weakness is turnout. In 2024, the base Democratic cities only were able to turnout 50-55% of voters. That is why I think this race is winnable. With the right coalition we can overcome Obedient Obernolte's stranglehold on the district.  

  The 23rd Congressional District is one of the largest congressional districts in the county totaling over 33,000 square miles. It includes the Mojave Desert which encompasses both the high desert of Hesperia, Adelanto, Victorville and the low deserts of Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms.  Based on analysis of precinct data from the 2024 election, the Democratic Base consists of Adelanto, Victorville, and parts of Hesperia. Candidates would be wise to focus on turnout in these areas to ensure a competitive race. Candidates who live in the High Desert have an advantage because of the geographic distance of candidates who live outside of this area. It is not impossible, but it does represent a challenge. Overall, if Democrats in this district can focus on turning out the base, picking up Dem-Coded independents, and capture some moderate Republicans this district can be won.

View Larger Map ESRI put together this very smooth map to look at the results of the 2008 election. I know it's a little dated but the turnout areas are great indicators of possible votes in future elections. I wonder if they will publish a 2012 version.