CA Governor Race: Will the Governor's Race be 'Aguilared'

Back in 2012, Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic establishment were left stunned after a surprising result from the Inland Empire when Democrat Pete Aguilar the mayor of Redlands did not make the top two race in then 31st Congressional District. Two Republicans, Congressman Gary Miller and then-state senator Bob Dutton, ran, as did four Democrats, Pete Aguilar, Justin Kim, Renea Wickman and Rita Ramirez-Dean. Only the two republicans advanced after the June primary was done. During the general election, State senator Bob Dutton attempted to moderate himself but ended up losing to the better funded Gary Miller.

After the loss the term 'Aguliared' was used among the Pelosi class of Democrats as a jest to Rep. Pete Aguilar for the results of the jungle primary. However, the outcome serves as a warning for the upcoming California governor’s race with eight Democratic candidates running: There is potential that the vote will split enough so that Republicans will advance to the general election.

The field of candidates is crowded with ambitious Democrats trying to position themselves as the heir to Governor Gavin Newsom. When many candidates from the same party compete in a primary, especially under California’s jungle primary the vote can splinter in unpredictable ways. Instead of one dominant Democratic contender, several will divide the base vote, allowing two candidates that no one desires at the top of the ticket.

Here are the results from a recent PPIC poll:

14% Steve Hilton, a Republican

13% Katie Porter, a Democrat

12% Chad Bianco, a Republican

11% Eric Swalwell, a Democrat

10% Tom Steyer, a Democrat

5% Xavier Becerra, a Democrat

5% Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat

5% Betty Yee, a Democrat

3% Matt Mahan, a Democrat

2% Tony Thurmond, a Democrat

The lesson this Jungle Primary is simple: Someone needs to drop out and throw their support behind a candidate that can win. Candidates campaign hard, but in this state, you need money and enthusiasm to win. Rusty Hicks is right that candidates be prepared to suspend their campaign and endorse another candidate on or before April 15th if their campaign cannot show meaningful progress towards winning the Primary Election in the coming weeks.

I hope candidates will heed Rusty Hicks' warning and not let the governor's race get 'Aguilared' in the process.