Inland Empire Progressive

The first major domino has fallen for Congressional Republicans.  This happened in the senate where Senator Joni Ernst will not be seeking reelection in 2026. This is a cause to celebrate here in the Inland Empire because being the bluest state in the Union our California-hating Republican should be scared because they are about to be shown the door whether they like it or not. There is wave building here in the Empire and I think it will culminate with the passage of Prop 50.  With the passage of Prop 50, Obernolte will have to do one of three things. He will either retire, which I don't think it is likely because he has the resources to compete. However, I don't think those resources will be enough to overcome a Democratic backlash.  Second, he can double down on his support for Trump, Elon, and the billionaires. I think this is the most likely scenario. He is already dodging townhalls, is cagy on the release of the Epstein files, and supports the building of concentrat...

  Above is an overview of the precincts that 23rd Congressional District won in 2024. As I said in an earlier post, I believe that Victorville, Adelanto, and parts of Hesperia make up the majority votes that Dems should focus on. However, as you can see above, Dems have won in other areas of the district as well. Redlands, Loma Linda and Barstow as well. You can also see that Dems won in parts of Fort Irwin and Baker.  The most surprising result of my analysis is Joshua Tree. I didn't know it was that Democratic and many precincts were won there.  The overall weakness is turnout. In 2024, the base Democratic cities only were able to turnout 50-55% of voters. That is why I think this race is winnable. With the right coalition we can overcome Obedient Obernolte's stranglehold on the district.  

  The 23rd Congressional District is one of the largest congressional districts in the county totaling over 33,000 square miles. It includes the Mojave Desert which encompasses both the high desert of Hesperia, Adelanto, Victorville and the low deserts of Joshua Tree, Twentynine Palms.  Based on analysis of precinct data from the 2024 election, the Democratic Base consists of Adelanto, Victorville, and parts of Hesperia. Candidates would be wise to focus on turnout in these areas to ensure a competitive race. Candidates who live in the High Desert have an advantage because of the geographic distance of candidates who live outside of this area. It is not impossible, but it does represent a challenge. Overall, if Democrats in this district can focus on turning out the base, picking up Dem-Coded independents, and capture some moderate Republicans this district can be won.

Welcome Everyone to my blog. It's been about 10 years since I last published. I admit I let the blog languish a bit. I decided to get back onto the saddle because with President Trump in office it has been a wild ride so far and I don't want to miss it.  Also, I feel this is the best way to be involved. In addition, I have a permanent residence here in the 23rd Congressional District and I feel determined to write about it and its culture. I loved the city of San Bernardino, and I do miss writing about the city, its politics, and the enjoyment of the political battles that were won and lost.  However, it is time to take on the mantle here in Yucaipa and learn about its politics and its culture. Let me tell you it is completely different here than it was in San Bernardino, but San Bernardino has prepared my well for what is to come.   At the moment I am gathering data about the district and will post at least weekly about my findings, observations and interests. T...