| CITY | DEM VOTE | REP VOTE | DIFFERENCE |
| Colton (Dem) | 2199 | 1057 | 1142 |
| Fontana (Dem) | 694 | 730 | -36 |
| Grand Terrace (Rep) | 768 | 920 | -152 |
| Loma Linda (Rep) | 1271 | 1138 | 133 |
| Rancho Cucamonga (Rep) | 6256 | 11140 | -4884 |
| Redlands (Rep) | 5562 | 6279 | -717 |
| Rialto (Dem) | 2657 | 1513 | 1144 |
| San Bernardino (Dem) | 7923 | 5723 | 2200 |
| Upland (Rep) | 1565 | 2168 | -603 |
| Unincorporated (Mixed) | 1507 | 1596 | -89 |
After the Primary, the folks in Washington D.C., Sacramento, the Media, and whoever else was paying attention to this race were shocked by the results of this election. I was only mildly surprised because I didn’t think that Mr. Dutton would make it through.
Early in the Primary, I let my candidate of choice at the time, Renea Wickman, know that I was worried on a purely mathematical basis that Dems would not make the top two. Dems had a 1 in 4 chance of making the ticket versus a 1 in 2 chance of Reps making the ticket. We have seen those results play out and my worst fears realized. But I make the most of it though, I like to be on the attack.
For me, the positive areas were Loma Linda and the Unincorporated Area. Loma Linda is traditionally conservative in elections, but with Justin Kim on the ticket he pulled it into Dem territory. In addition, the Unincorporated Areas are usually Rep territory too and they remained so in this election but the margins were narrower than I thought. Finally, a pleasant surprise to see was that the 31st portion of Rialto was far larger than I had thought.
The disappointment comes in turnout. The Dem cities (except San Bernardino) didn’t even crack the 20% mark. If turnout in Dem cities were between 2-5% higher, a Dem would be in the top two.
I take solace in the fact that as much as Rep. Gary Miller and Sen. Bob Dutton continue to placate their base, they will not survive long.
Notes: Ontario and Highland were left out because Ontario had no votes and Highland only has 14 total votes. You might think that based on the table above Reps would have an advantage. But you have to look at size and geography. Some Rep areas (Loma Linda, Grand Terrace, Redlands, and Upland) are small. Geographically, even though Upland is Rep territory the portion that is in the 31st is Dem. The Geographical trend is that the northern areas are heavily conservative, but sparsely populated with high turn out rates. The exception is Redlands where the reverse is true. Redlands as is very activist in nature. I think this is the case because high income Dems and Reps live in the area.
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