Tuesday, October 9, 2012

31st CD: Napkin Analysis

 The simple math of 4 Dems and 2 Republicans placed the Dems in a statistical disadvantage from the beginning. Of the Dems 1 was a carpetbagger (Rita Ramirez-Dean) but being a female Latina and a strong advocate of education was sure to syphon some votes. Renea Wickman ran for the assembly in 2010 and lost, but wanted a bigger prize in the congressional race. I thought she was the clear frontrunner, but our fundraising was minimal and the candidate was not as inspiring as she was in 2010.
Justin Kim was a surprise. He ran a very progressive and grassroots campaign which got the youth vote, Asians, and educated voters very excited. He also has a fundraising base in Loma Linda where he is from. I will most definitely be supporting him if he decides to run in 2014.
Pete Aguilar was not ready for prime time. He has a donor base, but it is uncertain if they will return to the fold in 2014. In addition, as I inspected his background more and more I found he was a DINO that had ties to extremist and corrupt Republicans such as Jerry Lewis. His time on the council was even more appalling he voted against a moratorium to increase the minimum wage in the city, campaigned for a big box Wal-Mart store (Measure O) to the detriment of small business, and voted with extremist on environmental issues.
I hope he does not get elected to the city council this November.
The DNC should have done their research on this guy, but did not. They wanted a W, but at any cost. I don't even want to mention his time at Arrowhead Credit Union, with accounting practices so egregious that the bank ended up in federal conservatorship.
As for the Reps. Miller has issued joint statements with the Damned Bluedog Joe Baca, and has crouched his extremist positions on immigration in more euphemistic language. He also has the National Association of Realtors backing his play.
However, he is the carpetbagger and has spent about $51 dollars, while Sen. Dutton has spent around $9 dollars per vote.
Sen. Dutton has strong name recognition, but is a weak candidate with lackluster fundraising and ground game. He has not had to campaign in years. Some Dems will break for him just because he is local, but his stance on immigration is off putting to me.
If Rep. Miller wins it will be because he bought this seat, but at a large cost and tenuous hold on it in 2014.